Sunday, December 30, 2007

Pot Odds

In poker, Pot Odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a contemplated call. In other words, if the pot contains $100, and a player must call $10 to stay in the hand, then the player has 100-to-10, or 10-to-1 (commonly expressed as 10:1), pot odds. Pot odds are often compared to the probability of winning a hand with a future card in order to estimate the call's expected value.

When you see a flop, you will generally be in one of three situations.

Situation #1: Your hand totally misses the board

e.g. You Have (8, J) - Board is (7, 5, Q)

You have nothing, so you should check and fold. You could bluff if you sense weakness.

Situation #2: You hit the flop well and hold a strong hand

e.g. You Have (A,Q) - Board is ( 10, Q, 5)

In this situation you would generally bet or raise

Situation #3: You have a drawing hand

In this possibility you currently do not hold a strong hand, but it is possible for you to make a strong hand if the turn or river brings you a good card. This situation is known as "drawing."

e.g. You Have (10, 9) - Board is (J, 8, 6)

In this situation, a 7 or a Queen will make you the nut straight and you will make the best hand.

Now if someone has top pair they will bet into ths pot and now you have a decsion to make wether you should call or not, this is where pot odds come into play. Calculating pot odds is fairly simple. First, you must count the number of outs you have. An out is a card that will improve your hand. In this example, your outs are four 7s and four Queens, or 8 outs total. To calculate your percentage of hitting an out on the next card, you take the number of outs times 2, then add 1. In the above situation with 8 outs, you have roughly a 17% chance of hitting on the turn.

Once you figure out your chance of hitting a draw, you multiply it by the pot+bet to determine the maximum bet you can call. For example, if the bet is $16 and the pot is $100, the pot+bet is $116. Now let's say you have 8 outs (8 cards will help you). This means you have about a 17% chance of hitting on the next card. If the pot is $100 and you must call $16, you should call, because you have more than a 13% chance to hit ($16 / $116). However, if the bet to you is $25, you should fold, because that would require a 21.2% chance of hitting ($25 / $116). For more practice with pot odds and other vital information you need about your opponents, check out this poker FREE Pot Odds Calculator.

Converting pot odds to percentage values

Pot Odds are a ratio, but having their percentage value will often make them easier to work with. The ratio has two numbers: the Size of the Pot, and the Cost of the Call. To get the percentage value, we add the Size of the Pot and the Cost of the Call numbers together and record their Sum. We then divide the Cost of the Call by the Sum.

E.g.
The pot is $60, and the cost of the call is $20. The pot odds in this situation are 60:20, or 3:1 when reduced. To get the percentage, we add 3 plus 1 get a sum of 4. Now we divide 1 by 4, giving us 0.25, or 25 percent.

When a player holds a drawing hand, or a hand that is behind now but is likely to win if a certain card is drawn, pot odds are used to determine the expected value of that hand when the player is faced with a bet. The expected value of a call is determined by comparing the pot odds to the odds of drawing a card that wins the pot. When the odds of drawing a card that wins the pot are numerically higher than the pot odds, the call has a positive expectation; on average, you win a portion of the pot that is greater than the cost of the call. Conversely, if the odds of drawing a winning card are numerically lower than the pot odds, the call has a negative expectation, and you can expect to win less money on average than it costs to call the bet.

Manipulating pot odds
Often you will have to bet to manipulate the pot odds offered to other players. A common example of manipulating pot odds is make a bet to protect a made hand that discourages opponents from chasing a drawing hand.

E.g
With one card to come, You have a made hand, but the board shows a potential flush draw. You wants to bet enough to make it wrong for an opponent with a flush draw to call, but You don't want to bet more than he has to in the event the opponent already has him beat. How much should You bet?

Assume a $20 pot and one opponent. If You bet $10 (half the pot), when your opponent acts, the pot will be $30 and it will cost $10 to call. The opponent's pot odds will be 3-to-1, or 25 percent. If the opponent is on a flush draw (19 percent with one card to come), the pot is not offering adequate pot odds for the opponent to call unless the opponent thinks he can induce additional final round betting from you if the opponent makes his hand. On the other hand A $6 bet would make your opponent mathematically indifferent to calling.

While pot odds at times can seem a pain to calculate, where one has to keep up with so many cards, rest assured, its well worth the trouble.

Hanging onto unprofitable drawing hands is one of the major leaks in many a player's game. Following strict pot odds to make your draw decisions will help plug this leak! If you are serious about your online Poker Bankroll then Check out this FREE Software which will instantly calculate pot odds for you in the middle of your hand and it also offers many other distinct features which put you at a huge advantage against your opponents. Remember if you have a distinct advantage over your Opponents you are guaranteed to be a consistently profitable poker player, after all we all know that we are after the Fish to make easy money and that is exactly what this software will help you do.

Finally, the most painless way I have found to memorize the common pot odds numbers is to print out or write down your cheat sheet, which can be found on the internet if you cant find please contact me and I will be happy to provide you with one, and refer to it as you play poker online. You will find yourself having to refer to it less and less, and eventually, not at all.
Combine good poker math, solid strategy and a lucrative poker bonus code here and there and you will see some major improvement in your poker bankroll!

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